Sen. Ted Cruz publicly acknowledged Thursday that the contest for the Texas U.S. Senate seat has tightened, saying Democratic state Rep. James Talarico “has a real chance” to unseat Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton this fall.
“Unfortunately, I do think he has a real chance,” Cruz said, speaking with Gov. Greg Abbott while Abbott guest-hosted Sean Hannity’s radio show. “I think this is a real race. I think it’s going to be close.”
Why GOP leaders are sounding alarms
Cruz’s comments mark a rare moment of public concern from a prominent Texas Republican about the vulnerability of the party’s nominee. His warning follows recent polling that shows the matchup between Talarico and Paxton as effectively a toss-up. Party officials had expected to hold the seat, but those expectations have dimmed as Talarico’s campaign has posted extraordinary fundraising results.
Talarico’s campaign disclosed it raised $30 million in the second quarter — more than three times the amount Paxton reported raising during April through June. That funding advantage gives the Democrat a substantial war chest for advertising, outreach and voter contact heading into the general election.
| Candidate | Q2 Fundraising |
|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | $30 million |
| Ken Paxton (R) | About one-third of Talarico's haul |
Stakes for Texas politics
The seat is open after incumbent Sen. John Cornyn was ousted in the primary, leaving the general election matchup to determine whether Republicans maintain a Senate seat in a state that has been reliably red. Cruz said he still expects the GOP to prevail but described current polling as a narrow, one- or two-point margin.
Gov. Abbott, appearing alongside Cruz on the same program, struck a contrasting tone, arguing Talarico will become more vulnerable once the general election campaign intensifies. Abbott said he believes voters will assess Talarico more critically as they learn more about his record and positions.
Campaign dynamics and voter appeal
Cruz criticized Talarico for past remarks and policy positions, calling him “radical” and “extreme” on gender issues. He also warned that Talarico’s congenial style could help him with less-engaged or undecided voters.
- Fundraising: Talarico’s sizable second-quarter haul gives him a significant financial edge.
- Polling: Recent surveys indicate a close race, prompting concern among GOP leaders.
- Messaging: Republicans aim to make Talarico’s record a central focus; Democrats plan to use resources to broaden turnout and persuasion.
The coming months are likely to determine whether the Democrat’s fundraising and messaging can sustain his advantage and whether Republicans can consolidate support and close the gap before Election Day.
— Alejandro Vega, Texas correspondent
